Since AI hit the mainstream in November 2022 (the launch of ChatGPT), artificial intelligence models have been embraced, vilified, accepted without question, almost worshipped, and heavily criticised.
And lots of people are concerned about what an AI future holds for them, work-wise.
Fair enough – plenty of professions are already feeling the encroachment of AI tools* on the work they do.
Likewise, there are plenty of people evangelising the benefits of AI; as if it won’t ‘come for’ them too.
But based on what we’re seeing so far, I don’t think anyone can afford to feel completely secure. Put another way: what makes you so special?
*(To be clear, in the context of this article, “AI tools” refers to tech relying on large language models, or LLMs, such as ChatGPT, Midjourney, and so on; i.e. tools that replicate tasks previously done by people.)
To know what the future holds, let’s look at the now…
Let’s take a quick look at what and who AI is already replacing…
First, the obvious one: basic customer service – AI chatbots have been around a while, often as the first option for handling interactions and queries. And despite the fact that most users hit the ‘frustration horizon’ pretty quickly when talking to these things, a lot of businesses still think they’re nifty things to have on their websites and helpdesks (or is it just that they’re cheap?)
Taking this ‘dealing with queries’ thing a bit further, apparently we can now replicate that experienced team member who is a goldmine of information and experience for their newbie colleagues. Check out this story from People Management about how Peterborough City Council created a chatbot based on a social care worker with 35 years’ experience (with their consent, I hasten to add – there are levels of dystopia we have yet to reach…)
We’ve already mentioned Midjourney (one of many tools specialising in fabricating images and animations) so how about graphic designers? Many businesses are more than content to create custom images, corporate videos, or even a new logo and brand image without an ‘expensive’ designer or branding consultant. Sure, such tools know nothing about branding or design but hey, cheap and quick, right?
While we’re on the subject of video creation, professional voice actors now face AI competition with text-to-speech tools offering quick conversion of your words into ‘natural-sounding’ (ahem) voiceover. And the best bit? AI will do the words too! No need to write them yourself and certainly no need to engage an all-too-human writer to create individual, engaging text for you – not when ChatGPT will churn out the required amount of bland copy in an instant (just remember to tell it not to use em-dashes; apparently, that’s an AI ‘tell’*).
* (Narrator: Dear reader, it isn’t.)
Some days, this list seems endless, so let’s wrap it up with just one more example: software developers. No-code app development has been available for a while, and if you want to write code from scratch, well, ChatGPT will do that for you, too. In fact, many hosting platforms offer an AI design service, creating a complete website in seconds.* Of course, a real software developer or designer will probably look askance at the results, but if it’s fast, low-cost, and works (kind of) then that’s tempting to any business on a limited budget.
* (Just so you know, I do try to practice what I preach – whether you like the results or not, davefoxall.com was created from scratch, without AI, by me.)
Okay, hyperbole and gallows-ish humour aside, the current reality is that if you are a writer, graphic designer, voice actor, software developer or frontline customer service rep, you’re probably already feeling the impact of AI tools on your work. Freelancers have seen clients melt away. Employees are seeing headcount reductions and wondering when it will their turn. CEOs are rubbing their hands with glee, thinking of efficiency savings.
Who’s next?
Time to indulge in a little fortune-telling… Don’t worry, you don’t need to cross my palm with silver. I doubt you’ll like what I have to tell you…
How about using AI for therapy? Really, with a number of therapy chatbots already available, this one could have been in the previous section. Psychiatrists can expect to see more and more people talking their issues through with an LLM. No, it won’t understand the issues or relate to the ‘patient’, and there may well be a tendency to stigmatise patients with issues like alcohol dependency or schizophrenia… but they will provide convincing psychobabble AND tell the user what they want to hear. The long-term therapeutic results are irrelevant, it’s the instant gratification that will keep people coming back.*
*(Incidentally, Philip K Dick predicted this in 1964 when he created Doctor Smile, the ‘suitcase psychiatrist’, in The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch. PKD predicted all kinds of AI-type stuff. The only consolation is perhaps that the closer his devices approach true sentience of their own, the more empathic and ‘human’ they become – much more so than ourselves, in fact).
How about coaching? Whether it’s your personal development, diet, career or anything else that you might want some guidance on, people can (and will) ask their handy-dandy AI bot for advice and input. Professional human coaches with years of experience will become a luxury service. And who can (or wants to) pay for luxuries these days?
Teachers are also (at least, partly) on the way out. ChatGPT now has a new ‘study mode’, aimed at helping children, students and learners tackle problems, think critically and test their knowledge. Enable study mode and ChatGPT will “guide your thinking”, “break concepts into easy to follow sections”, “personalize responses”, and “check your understanding”. Sounds peachy – although maybe a tutor that randomly makes stuff up* because it sounds right is not the best option).
*(Cutely referred to as ‘hallucination’, AI models have a tendency to invent facts, data and events. Buried at the bottom of OpenAI’s study mode FAQs is the warning, “Study mode can make mistakes – please double check responses.” Recent research suggests that ChatGPT is currently the best of the bunch because it has a ‘hallucination rate’ of only 15%. If any human member of your team or organisation lied 15% of the time, would you keep them on?)
Thinking of my previous 15-year career in learning & development and HR, I suppose ChatGPT’s study mode is also quite a step in the direction of making corporate training providers obsolete – just type in the learning objectives and target learner audience and an LLM trained on your business strategy and corporate policies will churn out tailored learning modules. And if you’re the type who thinks training makes no difference anyway, the quality issues won’t worry you, hey?
From coaches and training providers to business consultants. It’s early days yet, but fast-forward a couple of years and do you really think a business client or CEO is going to pay you 100s of dollars per hour for executive coaching or a market-beating business strategy when they can just get something similar from the latest iteration of ChatGPT in seconds; all based on industry-standard research and models?
And while we’re on a roll, how about the position of CEO? Sure, an LLM is unlikely to provide solid, proactive leadership… but there are plenty of CEOs who seem to get by just fine without that.
The point being, if you think you or your role is irreplaceable, well, so did a lot of other people.
The bottom line
I’m sorry to be a Cassandra but for most of us the future of work may well be bleak.
Whether it’s leisure or work, most people will sacrifice quality for convenience and a low price. Yes, maybe they’re being foolish. But where fools lead, humanity follows.
By now, you may be hoping for me to offer a way out – some kind of recommendation or strategy. Sorry, I’m afraid I only have predictions, not solutions. History is a litany of technological innovation and adoption. What history rarely mentions is the impact on the people who were doing fine until a technology replaced them. Usually, if your field is disrupted, the only real answer is to find another field.
So, instead let’s finish on a reminder for all those pro-AI people out there (though I doubt you’ve read this far)…
Artificial intelligence platforms like ChatGPT et al. are not intelligent, artificially or otherwise. You know that when you ask a question or prompt an action, it isn’t thinking about the best or most accurate answer, it’s just trawling through all the training data it’s been exposed to and giving you the most likely/popular answer. At best, the current crop of LLMs are imitation intelligence, offering cheap, easily produced ersatz results.
If you want real intelligence, you need a human being. And that’s not going to change anytime soon.
–
Leave a Reply